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Prediction for CME (2024-07-23T04:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-23T04:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32134/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, spanning from S20-S40 and from W40-W50, near Active Region 13749. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193, brightening is seen in SDO AIA 304, brightening and brief arcades are seen in SDO AIA 131 at 2024-07-23T03:52Z, dimming and opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 193/304 imagery. No ICME arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-26T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32136/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-23T04:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=47.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=441.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2024-07-23T12:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-26T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-25T11:25Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-26T14:02Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-27T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_124000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-07-23T14:05Z

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